March 4, 2008
The push to make the NCAA 65-team bracket this year has been so weak that it seems like no one wants to dance.
Teams that needed to step up and impress the selection committee have been making their case not to make the tourney as of late.
If the bubble teams continue to perform poorly, March might not be as mad.
Here are some of the teams that are definitely getting into the big dance and some that need to win some games down the stretch to earn their spot:
After Syracuse’s collapse against Pittsburgh, Jim Bohiem and the Orangemen aren’t looking too hot after losing a game they desperately needed to win.
They’ve lost five of their last six and close out the season with a desperate Seton Hall team and powerful Marquette.
The Big East will end up sending seven or eight teams to the tournament, and despite their strong, young lineup, Syracuse will not be one of them.
Their RPI is too low, and their conference record does not help their cause at all. Although they would be fun to watch, I don’t see them making the tournament.
Staying in the Big East, Villanova also is trying to grab a bid for the tournament, and like Syracuse, is struggling. They've lost eight of their last 12, including a five-game losing streak that killed their in-conference record.
A loss to the hungry St. Joseph Hawks didn’t help either.
Their weak out-of-conference wins are suspect, and that last-second foul call in the Georgetown game might have taken all the air out of them.
I don’t see Villanova getting into the tournament, but if they win their last two games and finish high in the Big East Tournament, they’ll have a shot.
In the ACC, Miami started off hot, but cooled early into the new year.
Wins against in-conference rivals (Duke, Clemson and Virginia Tech) and out of conference(VCU) should get them their spot in the tournament.
They need to finish strong against Boston College and Florida State, both of whom beat the Hurricanes earlier in the season.
Their close win over Virginia was a shaky sign for Miami, but despite that, and their mediocre in conference record, Miami should be dancing this March.
Kansas State has slipped out of the rankings and dropped its last four games.
The team is grappling with Oklahoma for the third bid in the Big 12.
Their 8-6 in conference record is OK, but it has a chance to improve to a healthy 10-6 with KSU’s last two upcoming games against the two cellar dwellers of the Big 12.
Michael Beasley and the Wildcats will make the tournament this year, despite their recent slide.
The Big 10 is very competitive this year with Indiana, Wisconsin, Purdue and Michigan State all ranked in the top 20 nationally, but could an Ohio State or Minnesota slip in there?
Well, Minnesota is just coming off a rout of Ohio State, and they have a tough task ahead of them in Indiana and Illinois, but their terrible record against the top of their conference might hold them back.
Minnesota has not beaten Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan State or Purdue this year, and out of conference, the best win was against Santa Clara.
I don't see the Gophers getting in, but Ohio State still has a chance. Their wins over Florida and Syracuse remain their headliners, but they will need to beat their last two opponents (Purdue and Michigan State) to get there.
I just don’t see that happening. They can maybe steal one, but not both.
USC might end up begin the fourth bid out of the PAC-10, but Arizona is making their case, also. Southern Cal was close to moving far in the ranks, but losing close games to Kansas and Memphis knocked them down a peg.
The problem is that the PAC-10 is relatively deep conference, record-wise, and teams like Arizona could get left behind.
But Southern Cal has a good chance to lock up their spot with California coming up, and a tough test against Stanford, but I think Mayo and the Trojans can take this one from Stanford, and they should have won the first game, after Stanford shot only 27 percent from the field.
But I see USC getting in.
In the SEC, Kentucky is coming on strong after a horrible December, where they lost five games. Kentucky also just suffered another loss, though, losing freshman superstar Patrick Patterson for the rest of the season.
Despite that, I think Kentucky can still go far into the SEC Tournament and will have a spot in the NCAA tourney. But they will have a test against Florida for their final game.
A near win against Tennessee can be overlooked and wins versus Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Mississippi should put them over the top.
Florida and Mississippi are also in the race, but Florida’s strength of schedule is low, and they would need to win out to have a good chance, but with Tennessee and Kentucky coming up, Florida could end its reign this season.
